Thursday, November 15, 2007

Praying for the devil's continued good health

The fate of Vincent Otti, the Lord Resistance Army’s (LRA) second in command, remains clouded in mystery more three weeks after word of his reported fall-out with the rebel group’s leader, Joseph Kony, first filtered through.

Otti is reported to have either gone down with malaria, been arrested or even killed by Kony after they fell out over the handling of the peace talks between the Uganda government and their LRA, and funds that are being given to them to sustain their fighters while the peace talks are ongoing.

Information on the recent developments in Garamba remains unclear even after Kony called Gulu LC V Chairman, Nobert Mao, by telephone to try and clear the air. One thing that is clear though is that the developments in Garamba have presented Ugandans with a very tricky situation.

On the one hand, few Ugandans would really give a hoot about the fate of Otti; in fact many would gladly toast to news of the death of Otti – a man who orchestrated some of the nastiest and most senseless killings that have been carried out by the LRA in the 21 years that they have been fighting the Uganda government.

It is therefore ironic that we have reached a point where Uganda needs Otti alive and pulling the strings in the LRA hierarchy more than ever before. One can hardly encounter a more awkward situation than this.

The point I am trying to make is that with the peace talks that have been taking place in the Southern Sudan capital Juba now heading for the home stretch after more than 12 months of negotiations, the uncertainty over the fate of the 61-year-old Otti could scarcely have come at a worse time.

Although all four senior LRA commanders indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) declined to attend the talks in Juba, instead preferring to delegate the task to a group of exiles sympathetic to their cause, the decision-making powers have always remained with them in the DR Congo jungles of Garamba National Park.

Otti, who has maintained constant communication with Uganda government officials throughout the last 12 months, therefore turned out to be the linkman to the LRA’s elusive leader, Kony. He had also turned into the voice of the group, often taking the initiative to call radio stations to articulate their position when the group felt aggrieved.

Perhaps it was this increased prominence that put Otti at longer heads with his Chairman. Since the cessation of hostilities agreement was signed just before the talks started, the LRA has seldom been engaged in combat. As a result, the period has seen Otti take on a more pronounced role as the intellectual commander of the group in a battle of wits with the government – since he is more educated that Kony.

While the official talks went on in Juba, Otti was often walking from Garamba to the DR Congo-Sudan border to meet different delegations. So Otti’s role in the process naturally became so prominent that the Uganda government deemed it necessary, even important, to start parallel talks with the indicted LRA leaders in Garamba.

Otti’s efforts won mutual trust with the Southern Sudan government, the Juba talks’ mediator Dr Riek Machar and the Juba government, several officials from the Uganda government, international observers like the former president Joachim Chissano, and even UN envoy Jan Egeland.

It is these ties that are now in danger of being broken if indeed Otti has been killed by Kony. If Otti is indeed dead and, like has been widely reported, Kony has appointed Okot Odhiambo as his a new deputy then it means that the world has lost out on its most prominent contact with the LRA.

More crucially, it means that more time will be wasted as the prominent players in the talks who had developed an understanding with Otti try to develop a relationship with Kony’s new deputy, Okot Odhiambo. More over it is not certain how much freedom Kony will give his deputy, or any other member of the LRA leadership for that matter, to make independent decisions during any deliberations.

Recent developments seem to indicate the Kony is likely to play a more prominent role in any parallel talks now that before. With Otti having come to be viewed as a moderate and Joseph Kony the hardliner, it could mean that the talks could take even more time since the two sides are likely to take a little more than trying to reconstruct burnt bridges.

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